Concessions and Repression: Can Democratizing Lead to Civil War?
نویسندگان
چکیده
We build a model for predicting civil wars where the government bargains with an opposition group using concessions and repression. The equilibrium is either a state of perpetual peace where there are only concessions and no repression, or the equilibrium leads to civil wars, where the concessions are lower and repression higher as compared to the peace equilibrium. An initial movement towards democracy for an autocracy leads to more conflict. After a threshold level of democracy, we achieve a state of peace. This provides one explanation for the inverted-U shape between probability of civil war and democracy found in empirical studies. The model also gives testable predictions on the relationship between civil war, degree of democracy and the instruments of concessions and repression. We assemble a unique country-level panel data set on wars, peace agreements, repression, institutions, disasters and economic indicators. We find evidence consistent with the model. Word count: 7,319.
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